USOIL rallied over 9% since I alerted my readers on long trade opportunities in this market last week. European Union considers joining the US in a Russian oil embargo which put more upward pressure on oil prices., Also, an attack on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend has added to the rally. This has supported the commodity currencies and especially my CADJPY trade idea. Pound traded higher after the rate hike last week and now it looks like there might be some trade opportunities in GBP pairs. Therefore in this report, I provide you with trade ideas on GBPUSD and, GBPNZD and update you on CADJPY and USOIL. Heads up for the Fed Chair Powell’s Speech. Follow the TIOmarkets Telegram channel via this Link. I will post updates and sometimes also new trade ideas in the channel. By reading further, you agree with our disclaimer at the end of this report and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.To get more news about videforex com, you can visit wikifx.com official website.
I include Target 1 (T1) and Target 2 (T2) levels (or ranges) in my analysis so that you have an idea of how far the market would probably move if price action supports my trade ideas. The target one is a high probability target while the next target is further away and therefore there’s a greater risk that the market doesn’t reach the level. While I don’t provide investment advice my analysis helps you in your own market analysis and then you can decide how to trade the markets.
GBPUSD is creating higher lows and could continue to do so as long as it stays above the 1.3110 support level. My trade idea is to look for long trades above the 1.3110 low with the T1 at 1.3134 and T2 at 1.3240. As usual price action has to confirm the trade idea. If it doesn’t, it’s better to stay in cash. Alternative scenario: GBPUSD breaks the 1.3110 support and trades down to 1.3040 – 1.3060 area.
GBPNZD is consolidating above a 1.9046 support. This opens up a possibility for an intraday rally and this is why I’m interested in long trades in this market today. Above the 1.9046 my T1 for GBPNZD is at 1.9185 and the T2 at 1.9360. Alternative scenario: GBPNZD breaks below the latest low at 1.9021 which increases the likelihood of the market moving down to 1.8972.
CADJPY is still trending higher. I said on Friday that if the resistance at the latest high is successfully cleared then the market could rally to 95.00 – 95.50. The market is now trading well above that high and trending higher so the analysis is still valid. Fundamentals haven’t changed either. Alternative scenario: CADJPY doesn’t respect the supports and breaks the 94.53 support. This would probably take the market down to 94.10 or so again.
USOIL hit my targets and continued higher. Oil is trading right at the resistance level of 107.52 and the nearest key support level is at 104.49. A decisive break above the 107.52 could open a way to 111.82. Alternative scenario: Oil starts to sell off and breaks the bull channel low. This would probably take the market to 100 or so.
Macro Drivers for the USD As the most followed, invested and traded markets for risky assets are priced in the USD it is helpful to understand what macroeconomic factors impact the other side of the equation, the USD. Whether we are trading EURUSD, XAUUSD or US equity CFDs the factors impacting the dollar, the nominator in the equation, have a significant role in the formation of all medium to long-term price action. The following table summarises the most important fundamentals.
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